(Image Credit:webjmcorg/morguefile)
This post will open with a flashback. Here's Michael Totten interviewing Big Pharaoh in 2005:
I asked Big Pharaoh what he thought would happen if Egypt held a legitimate free and fair election instead of this bullshit staged by Mubarak.
“The Muslim Brotherhood would win,” he said. “They would beat Mubarak and the liberals.”
I was afraid he was going to say that.
“I’ve had this theory for a while now,” I said. “It looks like some, if not most, Middle East countries are going to have to live under an Islamic state for a while and get it out of their system.”
Big Pharaoh laughed grimly.
“Sorry,” I said. “That’s just how it looks.”
He buried his head on his arms.
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Now read the opening sentence in Michael Totten's blog post for today:
Egyptian President Mohamad Morsi is destroying the country with a toxic mix of ideology and incompetence ...
...Within living memory, Egyptians have tried monarchy, Arab Nationalism, socialism, and military dictatorship. None of those government models worked, so now they’re trying Islamism.
It won’t work either. It will fail more spectacularly than even the others.
The two men predicted Egypt's future back in 2005 and now Big Pharaoh is living it.
At the end of the 2005 interview, Big Pharaoh admitted that he was considering emigrating to Canada. During this period he struck me as one of the more jovial and deferential Egyptian bloggers. He avoided the profanity-laced fury of Sandmonkey and for a long time stopped blogging altogether as events heated up in the region.
I presumed he had was intimidated.
Now it looks as though I may have been mistaken. As Egypt increasingly turns on its Muslim-Brotherhood leader M. Morsi, Big Pharaoh cheering his fellow citizens on in his own politely furious way:
First, repeat after me: the MB is a repressive regime, the MB is a repressive regime. When that reality sinks in, you will discover that there isn’t much of a difference between the Mubarak and the MB regimes. As any repressive regime, the MB considers a free strong well financed civil society as a threat to its regime and plans for consolidating absolute power in Egypt.
.........
Strong words from a man who in 2005 was thinking of fleeing the country.
Perhaps Big Pharaoh has reason to feel encouraged. Today -- June 30, 2013-- is the one-year aniversary of Morsi's election, and Egyptians are "celebrating" by staging mass protests, according to Al Jazeera English:
Thousands of people have converged on Tahrir Square, the focal point of the Egyptian revolution, to demand the resignation of Egypt's first democratically-elected leader, Mohamed Morsi...
...
Demonstrators waved red cards and chanted "irhal" - "leave", and promised to camp in the square until Morsi resigns. Thousands more have joined marches headed for the presidential palace, and are expected to arrive around dusk.
"It's the same politics as Mubarak but we are in a worse situation," said Sameh al-Masri, one of the organisers on the main stage. "Poverty is increasing, inflation is increasing. It's much worse than Mubarak."
Morsi came to power last year following the revolution against dictator Hosni Mubarak.
Protesters directed their anger not just at Morsi but the ruling Muslim Brotherhood, which in two years has gone from a banned movement to the rulers. "Mosques should be for religion, not for politics," said Ahmed Sultan, a student...
...The anti-Morsi protests have been organised by a grassroots campaign calling itself Tamarod, meaning "rebellion" or "insubordination", which claims to have collected the signatures of 22 million Egyptians demanding the president leaves office.
A quick look at Big Pharaoh's spring and summer posts shows that he has been fiercely supporting the Tamarod movement:'
The Rebel campaign came as a bolt of lightning shaking the opposition out of its despair. Now almost every opposition party declared their full support of Rebel and offering their offices for the nationwide campaign to use. Rebel was the stone that fell inside a stagnant pond of water.
At Last Grassroots Work!
One of the most cited criticisms directed to the opposition is the fact that they do not engage in grassroots political activity. The Rebel campaign, on the other hand, spread across the country by the means of purely grassroots efforts. People were encouraged to photocopy the petition and pass the copies around. Once the petitions were signed, a Rebel representative will collect them and add to the number that Rebel hopes will reach 15 million by June 30th, the day on which they will march to the High Constitutional Court to deliver the petitions. The Rebel Facebook page is filled with pictures of Egyptians from all walks of life signing the no-confidence petition form. People the opposition would dream about reaching...
...
In today's post, Big Pharaoh carefully examines all the constituents involved in the protest and makes some shrewd observations about how things might go:
What will happen?
Cairo – clashes might happen if the number of demonstrators was massive and they decided to occupy Cairo. In other words, occupy the institutions of power to force the regime to abdicate. If that happened, the Islamists stationed in Rabaa el Adaweiyah will react and the mini civil war will commence.
Delta – This region has been boiling in the past days and will be on fire on June 30. It is controlled by no one. It will be MB vs pissed off apolitical locals who are not affiliated with any political organization. Both are armed and it won’t be nice there. Living conditions will drive people out to the streets and I expect that people from the rural areas, MB strongholds, will participate as well.
Alexandria – we’ve seen a rehearsal today in Sidi Gaber. Live ammunition was used and 2 persons were killed including an American who was taking pictures of the clashes. Just like Delta, Alexandria might witness very fierce clashes.
The Canal cities – there will be mass protests especially in Port Said, however the 3 cities there will remain relatively peaceful. The army is in total control there and MB presence in Port Said in almost nonexistent.
Upper Egypt – There will be demonstrations fueled by the deteriorating living conditions but I am not expecting clashes there nor massive demonstrations.
He ends the post with this:
To conclude, June 30 is coming whether you agree with it or not, whether you like the people who will participate in it or not. The choice is yours. You can swim along with the big wave or stand there till the waves hit you and turns you upside down. In both cases, you can do absolutely nothing to influence the wave.
God save Egypt.
Beware the anger of a quiet man.
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